The near-term global outlook is shaped by the increasingly visible impact of monetary policy tightening by most major central banks and stresses in the Chinese economy. Global growth is projected to slow, remaining below trend in 2023-24, while inflation moderates but remains above target. Key downside risks include the possibility of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China and a continued rise in oil prices.

The Interim Report says that monetary policy should remain focused on bringing inflation back to target, while increased efforts by governments are needed to rebuild fiscal space and respond to future challenges, including the climate transition. Structural policy efforts need to be reinvigorated to strengthen growth prospects, with a key priority being to revive global trade. The Interim Report is an update on the assessment in the June 2023 issue of the OECD Economic Outlook (Number 113).